[joncarlos]

Last year Happ was very lucky in terms of strand rates and BABIP. He also dealt with a lot of uncertainty about his role in the playoffs, and then dealt with a lot of trade rumors that had him going to Toronto for Roy Halladay.

But now it looks like things have settled down and I would expect Happ to slot in as the #4 starter behind Doc, Hamels and Blanton.

Even though Happ was basically a rookie last year, he turned 27 during the playoffs. He is a lefty so maybe he still has some growing to do. In 2008 he threw about 166 innings, and in 2007 he threw about 120, so I'm not THAT worried about the jump in innings pitched, but it is a bit of a red flag.

2009 stats: 12-4, 2.93 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 166 IP, 56 BB, 119 K, 20 HR

Behind the numbers: 6.45 K/9, 3.04 BB/9, .270 BABIP, 85.2% strand rate, 1.08 HR/9, 0.90 G/F, 9.5% HR/FB, 18.6% LD rate... FIP was 4.33, xFIP was 4.49.

Happ allowed 11 HR in 71 IP at home, not surprising given his G/F rate and his park. He allowed 9 HR in 95 IP on the road. His K/BB was marginally better in the 2nd half.

At AAA in 2008, he was dominant, striking out 151 in 135 IP. His fastball was just under 90 MPH (89.7) and he threw it about 70% of the time, getting +12 runs out of it. He also had a cutter at 82.6 MPH that he threw 15% of the time, and a change at 80.3 MPH that he threw 12% of the time. His change and cutter were both plus pitches as well.

What I'm not seeing a lot of is breaking pitches. He threw 3.4% curveballs and it was a -2.5 run pitch. His overall numbers aren't bad the 2nd time through the order but they're not great either... batters hit 94% of their OPS the 1st time they saw him, 101% of their OPS the 2nd time they saw him, and 112% of their OPS the 3rd time they saw him.

Bill James and the fans are basically projecting him to match his FIP and post an ERA in the low 4s, though James has his K/9 jumping all the way to 8.19 and CHONE has it going to 7.22. I'm curious if anyone else thinks that he could see a spike in Ks... honestly I'm not seeing it. Maybe his minor league K rates are more impressive to them than to me, but looking at his stuff, I'm not sure he wasn't just overmatching AAA hitters in a way that doesn't translate to the majors.

The Phils' offense should be good again and so I think a 4.25 ERA in 200 innings should be good for 14-15 wins. Match that with about 150 Ks and you've got a solid pitcher, who doesn't seem to have that much downside. Other than being a fly ball pitcher in CBP.

[BigTymer]

I'm very curious myself to get the bullpen's read on Happ. Following all of last year as a multiple league owner, he was extremely consistent and did not have many bad games (2 games of 5 ER I believe all year).

April ERA / WHIP = 4.05 / 1.2
May = 2.29 / 0.86
June = 3.00 / 1.48 (2 0ER games (SD, TOR) & 3 bad games (BOS, NYM, BAL))
July = 2.93 / 1.05
Aug = 1.67 / 1.19
Sept+Oct = 4.43 / 1.65 (Bad games vs. SF and HOU and a relief job vs. FLA)

While the ballpark factor will always be against him (Home ERA was 4.2), to me he is at worst a #4 fantasy starter with upside. No way he repeats his 2009 stats as he got some good luck along the way, but will be surprised if he doesn't earn $10+.

[Judge Jude]

I don't like him at all.
Yeah, our owner who got him late for 2 last year is fine, but no way I'd take him in a redraft league.

Sort of anecdotal, but I've found that SPs like this who had some potential and then post superficially-good numbers in the first full-time year can struggle to adjust to reality the following season.
He's walking in as a "12-4, 2.93 ERA" guy, and that's not really who he is. He's an OK SP with a little potential, but if he gets off to a slow start (which could easily happen), both he and the manager are going to be rattled.

I see growing pains ahead.

[TS Garp]

Originally Posted by Judge Jude

I don't like him at all.
Yeah, our owner who got him late for 2 last year is fine, but no way I'd take him in a redraft league.

Sort of anecdotal, but I've found that SPs like this who had some potential and then post superficially-good numbers in the first full-time year can struggle to adjust to reality the following season.
He's walking in as a "12-4, 2.93 ERA" guy, and that's not really who he is. He's an OK SP with a little potential, but if he gets off to a slow start (which could easily happen), both he and the manager are going to be rattled.

I see growing pains ahead.

Agreed. He gave up 20 hr's in 166 ip, which isn't encouraging for a guy who pitches in Philadelphia. He was 4.18 era/1.44 whip at home and 1.99/1.08 on the road. The home ratios seem likely to stay about the same, but he won't be that good on the road again. The wheels started to come off in September (4.43/1.57), which is a sign that the league was catching on to him, and he followed that with a 5.68 era in the postseason. He did strike out more guys as the year went on, but I'd be careful with him going into next year, and if you can move him to an owner who thinks he's the real deal, do it.

My projection:

12 wins, 4.38 era, 1.34 whip, 150 k's.

[Judge Jude]

Well, the hard part about projections is that, for example, I think there's say a 35 pct chance he falls out of the rotation before the All-Star Break.

If I have to project numbers, I need to go with the other 65 pct - but that doesn't help an owner who would like to know the guesstimate of Happ being a wipeout (and they happen every single year).

[TS Garp]

Originally Posted by Judge Jude

Well, the hard part about projections is that, for example, I think there's say a 35 pct chance he falls out of the rotation before the All-Star Break.

If I have to project numbers, I need to go with the other 65 pct - but that doesn't help an owner who would like to know the guesstimate of Happ being a wipeout (and they happen every single year).

Yeah, but so do injuries and you can't fully account for those other or project them, so you just take your best shot at a projection. I think he'll stick in the rotation -- although I agree that he'll have ups and downs. Manuel seems pretty loyal. I just think he'll be a league average guy, for the most part.

[BigTymer]

I don't agree that you can look at his Sept/Oct stats and say "the wheels came off" nor his work in the postseason as it came in relief and is a very small sample size. Without running the numbers, if you take his 2/3 relief appearances away his number for that period would be improved.

After their trades, the Phillies system is pretty weak with pitching now so Happ would have to be pretty bad for him to lose his #4 rotation slot this year imo. I think his line in the Forecaster is pretty accurate (low 4 ERA and mid 1.3 WHIP) and given the lack of pitching depth in the NL I think you could do much worse than Happ in 2010.

[Erik]

Originally Posted by TS Garp

I think he'll stick in the rotation -- although I agree that he'll have ups and downs. Manuel seems pretty loyal.

Yes, and it's not like the Phils have many other options at this point. If Moyer is healthy and justifies his spot, then there's Kyle Kendrick. If Kendrick is already in the rotation, there's Ryan Vogelsong and Andrew Carpenter. I don't think either of those will be turned to unless things get really, really bad. The best SP prospects remaining in the Phils' system are all at least two years away.

I think he'll be OK, but I'll be looking to get others to overbid/overdraft him, not roster him myself this year.

[ScottW]

I take the opposite tack---the Phils need him, as there is no one even close to his skill set among the cluster of SP's below him in the rotation, nor on the farm.They need his innings badly and he seems capable of getting them. He is not some skinny, short lefty but a big strapping guy with a major league arm. Best yet, he is a guy who has learned HOW to pitch instead of throwing.I will roster him if the price is right; I'd be amazed if he didn't produce $15+ stats. And, I am the last guy to roster a hometeam guy just to have him--I can't remember the last Phillie pitcher I had. Oh, yes, John Rocker!