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RotoJunkie.com hosts this week's Fantasy Baseball Roundtable. This week's topic - Buyer's Remorse. Each blogger was asked to list three players they bought or drafted this March and why they regret doing so. Click below to see the responses.
Contributors to the Fantasy Baseball Roundtable include:
Zach Piso - MLB Front Office
Brett Greenfield - Fantasy Phenoms
Patrick Dicaprio - Fantasy Baseball Generals
Tim Dierkes - RotoAuthority
Adam Ronis - Newsday
Commish - Fantasy Baseball Geeks
Mike Muschiano - Poughkeepsie Journal
Rudy Gamble - RazzBall
Rob Reed - BaseballGeeks
Jason Collette - RotoJunkie
Zach Piso - MLB Front Office
Gary Sheffield: After drafting the Rotonomics Team featured in our Expert Blogger Draft series, many commenters complained about my Sheffield pick and my Soto pick. Obviously, the latter worked, but Sheffield has been just outright awful. It is hard to consider such a high pick as a sunk cost, but that is what I would have to do-the worst part is, he is not worth more than a free agent.
Huston Street: Street has not had an ERA below 3.77 all season, nearly half a point above his previous career high. There were warning signs that Street wasn’t elite (mostly his injury woes), but I drafted him to
eventually anchor my bullpen. While many closers have struggled this season, Street has managed to stay active while destroying my team’s peripherals.
Alex Rodriguez: Yes, I am going here. A-Rod’s quad is not my only cause for regret; he really was not performing that well before the injury. Despite seeing no reward from my first overall pick, I recently dealt
Rodriguez. He is still going to put up elite numbers, but he will not be the best player by the end of the year, and that is what you draft him for.
Brett Greenfield - Fantasy Phenoms
Three players I drafted that I'm having some buyer's remorse about are Shane Victorino, Chad Cordero and Kevin Kouzmanoff.
I'm disappointed in Victorino's .236 AVG and low stolen base totals.
After stealing 30+ last year, I was expecting 40+ with a full season
under his belt. An injury and the solid play of Jayson Werth coupled
with the presense of Geoff Jenkins has limited Victorino's 2008 value.
I'm not sure what to expect going forward, but what I've gotten from
him thus far has me regretting the draft pick.
Chad Cordero was one of my top 10 closers going into 2008 because of
his job security. While I figured he wouldn't lead the league in
saves, he'd come a lot cheaper than some other closers because he
pitches for a poor team. To think that he has no saves yet this season
and is flirting with surgery is disappointing. He'd been closing with
the job to himself over the last 3 seasons with great numbers. It's
unfortunate his season has gone in this direction.
My third player that I'm having buyer's remorse on is Kevin
Kouzmanoff. He's batting only .270 with 3 homers and despite hitting
in the heart of the Padres lineup he's only amassed 14 RBI. The reason
I was targeting him was because of his huge second half in 2007, where
he hit .317 and slugged 11 of his 18 homers. I'm not giving up hope
yet, but I may have to wait a while before this draft pick turns in
some good value.
Patrick Dicaprio - Fantasy Baseball Generals
Carl Crawford--I have him in multiple leagues including the Fantasy Baseball Search Expert League. He is leading me to my lofty position in last place. His hit rate is far below his usual standards at 31% so I am hoping for a rebound, but he is not showing any pop with a .392 slugging percentage. He is rapidly falling out of the first two rounds.
Miguel Cabrera-He was my preseason pick, in a tie with David Wright, to be the most valuable fantasy player. Oops. In a high stakes AL-only league I paid $38 for him. He has been worth about half that.
David Wright--Speaking of the devil, he was my second highest bid in a high stakes league, this one NL-only. I paid $36 and he has been worth about $25. Like Cabrera and Crawford, his hit rate is far below his expected levels, so I am hoping for a rebound, and Wright has a history of getting better as the season goes on.
Tim Dierkes - RotoAuthority
Three players I drafted and regretted: Francisco Liriano, Rich Hill, and Jorge Posada.
Liriano and Hill were drafted around the same point but in
different leagues - 10-11th round. Both had serious question marks -
health for Liriano, repertoire and mental approach for Hill. Tim
Lincecum and James Shields were two safer but comparable pitchers who I
should've reached for around the 8th.
Posada around the 10th round seemed like a bargain to me, even if
he simply reached my .284-19-78-74-2 projection. But I was a Geovany
Soto fan and he was going much later.
Adam Ronis - Newsday
I am not having a lot of remorse over a lot of players. I am a pretty patient guy, but there are some guys who have made me go gray quicker than I would have liked. Lets start with Andruw Jones. I didn't plan on drafting him this season, but when he fell to me in the 11th round, I thought the gamble was worth it. I thought 30 home runs was a realistic
possibilty. Well, I don't need to tell you how bad he has been. He has destroyed my average and now he's hurt. Probably a blessing in disguise.
Next guy is Manny Corpas. He lost his job quickly and although I was able to replace him adequately in both leagues I owned him, you look back and wonder what productive player you could have taken in that spot.
And finally, Nick Swisher. I own him in three leagues and he has been awful. An average just above .200 and four home runs? You have to be kidding me. I'm trying to exercise patience with him, but this is getting tiresome. He went from leadoff to hitting eighth. That's one pick I'd definitely like to have back.
Commish - Fantasy Baseball Geeks
Although I am still holding out hope for the following players, buyer's
remorse is definitely starting to enter into the equation. I have decided
to take one player from each of my three main leagues to spread out the
love, or lack there of. It might be the fact that I am more patient with
hitters, or it could be that I have more faith in them turning it around,
but my biggest busts with the most uncertain futures all happen to be
pitchers.
Rich Hill, 119th Overall, 12 Team Mixed "Experts" League
Obviously there is nothing you can do about having your #2 starting pitcher
hit the DL. However, when your #2 starting pitcher is on the AAA DL then
you might have a problem. I do think Hill rebounds somewhat after not
exactly seeing eye to eye with skipper Lou Piniella, but the only way Hill
helps me again this year is if I grab off the free agent list before my
league mates. In a shallower 12 team league with 8 active pitchers, I cut
Hill loose and moved on.
Justin Verlander, 38th Overall, 15 Team Mixed Pseudo-Dynasty League Draft
Verlander was the 7th starting pitcher taken off the board in this league
where starters have a tendency to come off the board quicker than in most
leagues. I had Verlander targeted with this pick weeks before the draft
occurred and when my turn came up I took 4 seconds to make him mine for the
next 10 years, as there are no limits to the amount of time you can keep a
player. He is a 25 year old pitcher on a good offensive club who went
18-6/3.66 ERA/1.230 WHIP/183K/ in 202 IP for 2007 and already has a ROY & 2
top 10 Cy Young finishes. Unfortunately for me it is looking like that 8.17
K/9 in 2007 might have been the exception to the rule as his 5.40 K/9 in
2008 is much closer to his 5.98 career K/9 prior to 2007. Add in the
decreased velocity and the fact that he is getting lit up more often than
not, and I think it is safe to say that I am starting to get a little
concerned.
Jeremy Bonderman, $22 ($260 Budget), 10 Team AL Only League
To make matters worse with Bonderman, I also drafted him 143rd overall in
the above dynasty league and 146th overall in the above "experts" league.
Even though his 2nd half split from 2007 screamed "Stay Away", I couldn't
help myself. I mean didn't Peter Gammons predict multiple Cy Youngs for
Bonderman? Plus the Tiger offense was going to be a juggernaut. The
numbers had to be wrong. And if they were, then I was going to be a happy
man in many leagues. Unfortunately to this point in the season Bonderman
has been closer to the 2nd half 2007 Bonderman (2-8/7.38 ERA/1.683 WHIP)
than the 1st half 2007 Bonderman (9-1/3.481 ERA/1.189 WHIP). In this
particular league, at the time Bonderman's name was tossed out, he and
Dustin McGowan were the last two lower high end starters remaining and I
knew that I needed one of them. Bonderman was tossed out first so I went to
$22 on him. McGowan went shortly after for $18. I have much more faith in
McGowan bouncing back than I do Bonderman who is quickly turning into a
ratio killer.
Others who have disappointed me but barely missed the cut are Roy Oswalt,
Delmon Young's power, Howie Kendrick's body and Rickie Weeks' Avg.
Mike Muschiano - Poughkeepsie Journal
Considering one of my teams has stumbled out of the gates, it wasn’t hard
finding three players that have really grinded my gears. However, I still have
faith in players like Beltran, who gets hot in a hurry; Ichiro, who is a
career .331 hitter, not .279; and Carlos Pena, all .214 batting average points
of him. Here are three players that I do have a sense of buyer’s remorse:
Rafael Soriano- Bleep, bleep, bleep. That’s the only things I heard coming out
of my mouth about this guy. First off, he gets hurt. I can handle that. Then,
he decides he is ready to throw again, only to set himself back and frustrate
owners. Originally, after getting hurt the first week of the season, I figured
he might come back within about three weeks. Not only is he still not back,
but when he returns, it will most likely be as a setup man. Oh yes, I am
totally remorseful about this draft day mistake.
J.R. Towles- In general, rarely should any manager feel remorseful about
drafting a rookie. Essentially, you are taking the risk on that player and
understand they could struggle. Upon drafting Towles, I bought into the hype
about the young catcher. Granted, there was two young catchers available in
the mid-to-late rounds. Clearly I guessed wrong, which makes me fairly
remorseful.
Francisco Liriano- Hard to believe that this was the first pitcher I took in
my one of my leagues (note: I already had kept Bedard). Remorseful would be
putting it kindly. Could his slider be tainted forever after having Tommy
John? I don’t know. But next time around, I know I won’t put much of an
investment into this risky arm.
Rudy Gamble - RazzBall
Jorge Posada - Picked him in both my expert leagues. I got him at what
I felt was fair value but I wish I stuck w/ my typical strategy of
picking end-of-draft catchers. Late round catchers I earmarked like
Napoli and Snyder have performed well. Not as bad as picking V-Mart or
Martin in the 3rd round but still...
Chad Cordero - DOA. Luckily, Rauch was available so no harm. But I'd rather have gotten Kelly Johnson w/ that pick.
Johan
Santana - i had him as #1 in value but had the #2 pick in one league.
I swapped spots with #5 knowing I can get Santana and have less of a
gap between picks in a 12 round draft. But I'd rather have kept the #2
pick, drafted Hanley, Wright, or Holliday, and drafted either Peavy or
Webb with my 2nd pick. I'm not hating on Santana but he's a step below
his peak - too many gopher balls. I still think he'll prove more
valuable than all except a couple 'consensus' first round picks.
Rob Reed - BaseballGeeks
J.R. Towles:
I had a feeling that Soto and/or Towles were going to be nice picks,
even with the preseason hype that we all know puts more value on
prospects than they probably deserve. The problem is that I sided with
Towles over Soto because of a lot of the sabermetric evidence that
indicated Soto was the recipient of a lot of luck (high BABIP, in
particular).
Still,
I was clear on the BGeeks podcast that whether or not Soto's BABIP went
down in 2008, his high RBI number in his last minor league season was
something to get excited about. So, in an expert H2H league, I went
with Soto, and I am incredibly happy.
However,
in my favorite league (the one that has paid me money the last three
years), however, I decided to tinker with the hype and do everything I
could to get Soto above $10 without drafting him (he went for $12).
In
the end, I decided to go with Towles in my money league, but he hasn't
come close to my expectations (i.e., cheap stolen bases, decent
average). But, in terms if value, he went for $1 in the endgame versus
Soto's $12.
I'm
pretty confident that he can improve on his average substantially
(provided that he doesn't get sent down to work on his bat). BUT, I'm
very concerned that he doesn't have a single SB in 140 MLB ABs.
Miguel Cabrera:
Yes, I imagine that this remorse won't last long. And, I have to admit
that his last week and a half or so -- in terms of basic hitting -- has
been very promising. BUT, as with many folks out there, I picked this
guy as my #1 guy in both the expert H2H league (drafted #1, serpentine
with the 5th pick when my favorite, Matt Holliday, was still out
there). I paid $44 for Cabrera in my money league.
The
positive is that his HRs and RBI are not much different this year than
last. BUT, like many of you, I went after who I thought would be the
#1 guy in all of fantasy this year, and he just hasn't shown that yet
(his BA is about 40 points below this point last year).
Gary Sheffield:
The original "Mr. Crunk" was my most expensive pick in 2006 when I paid
$35 for him. So, when he went down for most of that season, I was
devastated. And, you can imagine, I avoided him like the plague last
season in all drafts.
Then,
he had a 2007, 20-20 season that made him very enticing -- especially
with this amazing offense that Detroit had built around him. So, in
the end game of my money league draft, with my UT spot empty, and
Sheffield still available, I snagged him for $5.
Well,
the rest is brutal history so far. That Tigers haven't met
expectations (any wonder that two of my three are Tigers? -- and if I
had to choose four, I'd probably add Verlander).
And,
Sheffield just looks horrible (imagine the pain seeing Sheff go 0-5
when his team scores 12 runs on May 20th). The fact that I only paid
$5 for him makes it more likely that I will give up on him soon if he
doesn't turn things around.
Jason Collette - RotoJunkie
Culprit #1 – J.J. Hardy. I was not
expecting the early 2007 numbers from Hardy; I was projecting a happy medium
from that start and how he finished the year. Spring Training pointed to some
hope but eight weeks into the 2008 season, and Hardy’s .239/.315/.303 line is
doing nothing for me. His problems come from his own personal effort to keep
groundskeepers employed at stadiums in the National League. He is hitting 51%
of his balls in play into the ground and has a very low 12% line drive rate.
Better days have to be ahead, right? The only plus for him right now is he is
walking 10% of the time which is his best rate in three years. As I type this,
Hardy just took Josh Beckett
over the fence for a two run homer thus doubling his season total from his
previous 144 at bats.
Culprit #2 – Kevin Kouzmanoff. It is never a good thing when you have more
letters in your first name than you do walks in 181 at bats. Kouzmanoff has
four walks on the year, which equates to a 2.2% walk rate which is the fourth-worst
rate in all of baseball behind the likes of Erick Aybar,
Yuniesky
Betancourt, and Jason Bartlett.
Just because Kouzmanoff thinks he can hit everything does not mean he should. On
the plus side, he has struck out less frequency than he did the previous two
seasons, but his walk rate is 67% off last year’s pace. I drafted Kouzmanoff
for help in the power categories but combine the free-swinging ways plus his
home ballpark, and a suppressed 5% HR/FB rate, and Kouzmanoff is causing a lot
of buyer’s remorse. Even once his HR/FB crawls back to league average, his
batting average and overall production will suffer from microscopic walk rate. One
more bit of salt to rub in the wound – Christian Guzman
has more homeruns than Kouzmanoff this season. Say that three times fast
without throwing up a little in your mouth.
Culprit #3 - J.R. Towles.
Going into the draft, I had budgeted $10 to spend on either Towles or Geovany Soto.
When Towles came up in the draft, my team was looking a bit slow so I spent my
allocated money on the speed potential Towles brings to the table. He stole 27
bases over the past two seasons in the farm, and combine that with his high
contact abilities and I was projecting a .280 average with the ability to
approach double digit homers and steals. So far, he is on pace for double-digit
homers but he has yet to even attempt a stolen base. To make matters worse, he
is hitting a robust .144 on the season. A 10% line-drive rate and a .134
batting average on balls in play are killing his numbers. At any other position
but catcher, I would have cut him long ago. However, Towles will only improve
from here as his statistics regress toward the mean and it is not like there
are tons of options out there on the free agent wire
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